Cautious optimism for upcoming Northern Hemisphere summer season.



• The latest UN Tourism Confidence Index reflects cautious optimism for the period May-August 2025 which includes the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere.

 • On a scale of 0 to 200 (where 100 indicates equal expected performance), experts gave the period MayAugust 2025 a score of 114, down from 125 for January-April 2025, and below 130 for May-August 2024. 

• Some 45% of Panel experts indicated better (40%) or much better (5%) prospects for this 4-month period, while 33% foresee similar performance than in the same period of 2024. Some 22% expect tourism performance to be worse. 

• Experts highlighted the uncertainty and unpredictability derived from import tariffs and its potential impact on the economy and travel sentiment.

 • While one third of survey respondents indicate little or no impact from trade tensions on tourism performance, some 25% expect some impact in the near future.

 • IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (April 2025) shows weaker economic and trade prospects, partly due to the imposition of import tariffs by the US and resulting policy uncertainties. Despite falling global inflation, services inflation remains high by historical standards.

 • On the upside, oil prices are expected to drop 15% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, partly the result of weaker demand, which may reduce transport and business costs. The depreciation of several currencies against the US dollar, such as the Japanese yen, the Turkish lira, the Egyptian pound or the Argentinian peso (due to a devaluation in late 2023), could continue to raise the price attractiveness of those and other destinations.

 • Despite increased global uncertainty, travel demand is expected to remain resilient.

 • UN Tourism’s January 2025 projection of 3% to 5% growth in international arrivals for the year 2025 remains unchanged

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